In the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election, migration is emerging as a major factor shaping voter turnout. The shifting patterns of population movement are posing new challenges to democracy in Bihar. Many voters are at risk of being disenfranchised because of how migration is treated in voter registration processes.
This article explores how out-migration, circular migration, electoral roll revision, and legal frameworks are influencing turnout. Recent developments in voter roll revision throw light on the magnitude of the issue.
Migration in Bihar: Scale and Patterns
Bihar has long been a state with high levels of out-migration. Many people leave the state for work in other states. Some move temporarily; others relocate permanently. Seasonal migration is common during non-agricultural periods.
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Circular migration is also common. Families may split, with one or more members living elsewhere for work, while others stay behind. Because of such movement, many migrants are absent from their home constituencies at times of house verification.
Thus, migration has two effects: (1) it changes the local population base in many constituencies, and (2) it complicates the process of voter registration and roll maintenance.
Electoral Roll Revision: Special Intensive Revision (SIR) 2025
Ahead of the 2025 Bihar election, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has conducted a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls. Under the SIR, many existing names are being verified, and voters who are deemed “permanently shifted,” “untraceable,” or “duplicate” may be removed.
The SIR process is being viewed by critics as a double-edged sword. On one hand, it is meant to improve the accuracy of the rolls. On the other, it may exclude many migrant voters who are absent during verification or lack required documents.
It has been reported that nearly 3.5 million migrant voters may have already been deleted from the rolls because they were marked as permanently migrated. In total, more than 65 lakh (6.5 million) names are reported as untraceable, duplicate, or otherwise removed in the SIR process.
In many districts, high numbers of deletions have been observed. Patna alone saw deletion of ~3,95,500 voters. Madhubani, Gopalganj and East Champaran also reported large declines in voter numbers.
Some constituencies in flood-affected or high out-migration areas have seen sharper drops. Because of migration, polling districts are encountering a mismatch between actual resident voters and registered ones.
How Migration Lowers Voter Turnout?
The impact of migration on turnout operates via several pathways:
1. Deletion from Voter Rolls
Migrants who are absent during verification are often marked as “permanently shifted” and removed. This means they lose their formal voting right in their home assembly constituency. Because of that, many who would have otherwise voted may find their names missing. This reduces potential turnout.
2. No Registration in Host States
Migrants moving to other states often face barriers to registering there. They may lack proof of residence, proper documents, or face political resistance. Thus, they may not be able to vote either in their place of work or in their home state. That means complete disenfranchisement in many cases.
3. Legal and Documentary Hurdles
Under SIR, voters are being asked for specific proofs of citizenship or residence. Several commonly held documents, such as Aadhaar or ration cards, are not being accepted in some cases. Many migrants lack the required set of documents, especially if they are living in informal housing or moving frequently. This lack of paperwork prevents inclusion.
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4. Poor Communication and Short Timeframes
The SIR process is being conducted on a tight timeline. Many migrants may be unaware of the revision process or deadlines. Because of brevity of time, they may fail to respond in time and thus be excluded.
5. Psychological and Mobilization Effects
When people believe that their vote might not count, or that they may face hurdles, they may stay away. The sense of disenfranchisement or confusion about roll status may depress turnout among migrants and their communities.
Political Stakes and Survey Evidence
Migration and related issues have become central to the electoral contest in 2025. In recent surveys, unemployment and migration are cited as top voter concerns. About 38.4 % of respondents noted migration as a primary issue.
The rival alliances are trying to use the issue. The Opposition has charged that the SIR exercise is being used for “vote theft” and to suppress certain voter groups.
The timing of SIR, so close to elections, has given the issue traction in campaigns. Some analysts believe the SIR will affect electoral arithmetic in closely contested seats.
Thus, migration is not just a background issue — it is a factor that may swing outcomes in marginal constituencies.
Potential Mitigations and Reforms
To reduce the negative impact of migration on turnout, several remedies are possible:
Portable Voter Registration: A system could be introduced so that a voter displaced to another state can maintain registration in both the home and host states. Cross-state database linking and portability would help migrants retain voting rights. This idea is being discussed in political and policy circles.
Flexible Verification Mechanisms: Instead of requiring in-person verification at home, remote verification or using online mechanisms could help migrants. Doorstep verification and extended timelines could reduce exclusion.
Simplified Document Rules: Accepting a broader range of documents, or relaxing requirements for migrants, could help them re-enter or retain registration.
Outreach and Awareness Campaigns: Special drives, media outreach, and community mobilization can help migrants know their rights and act in time.
Legal Safeguards
The courts and election oversight bodies can ensure that mass exclusion is prevented. Indeed, litigation is already underway: the SIR exercise has been challenged in the Supreme Court by the Association for Democratic Reforms and others.
Special Polling Arrangements or Proxy Voting
Though complex, special provisions (e.g. postal ballots, voting in workplace districts) could be considered to include migrant voters. If reforms are adopted, migration need not translate into disenfranchisement.
Outlook for Bihar 2025 Turnout
Given the scale of deletions and migration, voter turnout in Bihar could be altered significantly in 2025. Many traditional voters may not be able to vote. Some constituencies may see sharper dips in turnout.
The more vulnerable segments—rural migrants, small laborers, informal workers—are likely to be more affected. Turnout decline may be concentrated among these demographics. Opposition strategies that claim suppression may mobilize affected communities. So, the real-world impact may be partly offset by political mobilization.
However, the potential for distortion is high. The election may be contested not just in terms of policies, but also in terms of the integrity and inclusiveness of the electoral process.
As the final rolls are published and the campaign intensifies, the influence of migration on turnout will continue to be a key narrative. The extent to which excluded voters are reinstated or mobilized may determine winners in tight races.
