Patna: In the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, four seats of Kishanganj district—Kishanganj, Thakurganj, Kochadhaman, and Bahadurganj—remain the part-way of political battle. It has a 70% Muslim population. In 2020, AIMIM won two of the five seats in Seemanchal, while Congress and RJD got one each. But this time there are chances of vote semester due to mismatch between the Mahaghatbandhan (RJD-Congress) and AIMIM, which can goody BJP.
Why did the Mahaghatbandhan prefer former AIMIM MLAs?
The Mahaghatbandhan has made strategic changes in seat-sharing. On Kishanganj seat, Congress has given ticket to former AIMIM MLA Kamrul Hoda, who is contesting versus BJP's Sweety Singh. In Thakurganj, RJD re-fielded sitting MLA Saud Alam, while in Kochadhaman, RJD chose former JD(U) MLA Mujahid Alam. Congress gave ticket to Musavveer Alam on Bahadurganj. RJD canceled the tickets of three sitting MLAs, leading to internal strife. Many AIMIM MLAs have joined RJD, but AIMIM claims that this is a strategy of 'vote loot'.
Why did Owaisi miss the opportunity to join hands with the Mahaghatbandhan?
In September, AIMIM senior Asaduddin Owaisi had written a letter to RJD taxing six seats and moreover offered to join the alliance. But the Grand Syndication ignored it. Owaisi had unmistakably warned that BJP could goody from this refusal. Recently, during the 'Seemanchal Nyay Yatra' taken out in Kishanganj, he directly challenged Tejashwi Yadav and countered his 'extremist' statement by saying that it is an insult to the people of Seemanchal. The resentment grew so much that AIMIM separated from the Grand Syndication and spoken the insemination of 'Grand Democratic Alliance' (GDA).
Will Kishanganj be transformed by 35 seats of GDA?
AIMIM has worked GDA in syndication with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) and Swami Prasad Maurya's own Janata Party. In the seat distribution, AIMIM has got 35 seats, ASP 25 and AJP 4 seats. AIMIM has fielded well-wisher Shams Aghaz from Kishanganj. In 2020, AIMIM had won all five seats in Seemanchal, but later four MLAs switched to RJD. Now GDA is projecting itself as a new third front, focusing on the issues of Dalits, wrong-side-up classes and minorities. Owaisi has moreover proposed 'Seemanchal Development Council' in Parliament, so that a voice can be raised at the national level on the plight of the area.
Why are Muslim voters stuck between 'Big RSS' vs 'Small RSS'?
There is a debate among Muslim voters in Seemanchal: BJP is stuff considered as 'Big RSS' and AIMIM is stuff considered as 'Small RSS'. When Prashant Kishore asked Owaisi to stay yonder from Bihar, Owaisi replied that he knew the ground reality here – migration of youth, unemployment. The Grand Syndication is accused of ignoring the demands of the Muslim leadership. Owaisi said he would represent Muslims by rhadamanthine the "son of Mohammed". This has increased vote polarization, and the role of Muslims will be decisive in voting on November 11.
Why can the result of Kishanganj elections goody BJP?
BJP-JD(U) is getting stronger due to vote sharing. BJP's Sweety Singh in Kishanganj, JD(U's Gopal Agarwal in Thakurganj), Veena Devi in Kochadhaman and BJP candidate in Bahadurganj are strong contenders. AIMIM's 'Patang Chaap' slogan has attracted the youth, but the traditional wiring of the Grand Syndication remains intact. Analysts say that if Muslim vote is divided 50-50, then NDA will get an indirect benefit. The results on November 14 will show whether Owaisi's 'game' has turned out to be a boomerang for the Grand Alliance.
