New Delhi: The Tarique Rahman-led BNP has won a landslide victory in the unstipulated elections in India's neighboring country, Bangladesh. The BNP is poised to form the government in Bangladesh once then without nearly 20 years, and Tarique Rahman will be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh. The BNP won two-thirds of the seats, while the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami syndication suffered a major setback.
The fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami alliance, led by Shafiqur Rahman, which had dreamed of gaining power without the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, suffered a superincumbent defeat. While the party managed to win over 200 seats in the Bangladesh elections, the Jamaat-e-Islami failed to win plane 70 seats. Thus, the dream of Jamaat-e-Islami, which had dreamed of coming to power, was completely shattered.
The Bangladesh referendum results come at a time when political worriedness is rife for the turnout elections in West Bengal and Assam. Will the BNP's landslide victory in the unstipulated elections in Bangladesh, which has been grappling with political instability for the past two years, have a political impact not only on relations with India but moreover on the politics of Bengal and Assam?
How will Bangladesh referendum impact Assam and West Bengal?
Both Assam and West Bengal share confines with Bangladesh, so any political turmoil there will moreover impact the social and electoral dynamics of these two Indian states. Bangladesh shares a 4,000-kilometer verge with India, India's longest verge with any of its neighbors. Therefore, a stable Bangladesh is essential for India's peace and security.
Amidst the political heat of the West Bengal elections, Bangladeshi infiltration and atrocities versus Hindus in Bangladesh have been a key part of BJP politics. For the past several months, BJP leaders in Bengal have promoted these two issues as key referendum issues.
What is Bangladesh's political connection to West Bengal?
The situation in Bangladesh directly impacts West Bengal's politics. The war of words between the BJP and the TMC over verge security has escalated. Furthermore, the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration has unchangingly been a hot topic in Assam, and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is engaged in a wayfarers to identify and deport illegal immigrants.
The Muslim polity constitutes virtually 30 percent of the population in both Assam and Bengal. Due to the verge between both states and Bangladesh, the BJP has once been politicizing the infiltration issue. Without Sheikh Hasina left the country, the atrocities versus Hindus and the violence in Bangladesh have fueled religious polarization in Bengal and Assam.
The BJP is presenting this issue as an "existential slipperiness for Hindus." BJP leaders like Suvendu Adhikari are linking it to Bengal's future and are saying, "We will not let Bengal wilt Bangladesh." Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has described the situation in Bangladesh as a "serious threat." Hemant has been whistle-stop versus infiltrators. In such a situation, the victory of the BNP and the defeat of Jamaat-e-Islami in the Bangladesh elections could have political implications for both states.
How will this impact West Bengal politics?
The BJP has been targeting the Yunus government in Bangladesh, whether it be on the issue of infiltration or the killing of Hindus in Bangladesh. Effigies of Yunus were burned in West Bengal and a march to the Bangladesh High Commission in Kolkata was moreover held. BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, withal with hundreds of saints and sages, surrounded the Bangladesh High Commission to express their displeasure.
A large part of the BJP's politics in Bengal has been dependent on the situation in Bangladesh. Therefore, will the defeat of the fundamentalist party Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh and the victory of the BNP not only strengthen political relations with India but moreover help tomfool the undercurrent of religious polarization in the politics of Bengal and Assam?
What is expected political impact on Bengal and Assam elections?
The victory of the BNP under the leadership of Tarique Rahman could lead to a good relationship with India. The BNP is seen as a moderate party in comparison to the likes of Jamaat-e-Islami. Therefore, the BNP's inrush will put an end to the negative sentiment that was towers in India regarding Bangladesh.
When the elections were spoken in Bangladesh, India welcomed it. Subsequently, without the death of Tarique Rahman's mother and BNP leader Khaleda Zia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent External Affairs Minister Jaishankar as his envoy to Bangladesh. Jaishankar moreover carried a letter of condolence written by PM Modi for Khaleda Zia.
Tributes were paid to Khaleda Zia in the Indian Parliament on the first day of the upkeep session. One thing is well-spoken from this: India was fully supportive of the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh. The rise of the BNP will reduce favoritism versus minorities in Bangladesh, which will moreover have an impact on India. Consequently, the undercurrent stuff created in the politics of Bengal and Assam will not only be reduced but will be stopped.
Is the BNP government a ray of hope?
A democratic government is stuff worked in Bangladesh. While the BJP was raising the issue of infiltration in Bengal, the TMC too is raising the issue of infiltration with the Union Home Ministry and the BSF.
While the TMC is rented blaming the government, a stable government in Bangladesh is now signaling a political wholesomeness for the TMC in the waffly circumstances. However, vastitude politics, the situation in Bangladesh directly impacts India, as it hopes to prorogue smuggling and infiltration from Bangladesh.
Many parts of the India-Bangladesh verge are unfenced. Animal smuggling, drug trafficking, and unverified currency spritz through these areas. A strong and stable government in Bangladesh could put an end to this. Bangladesh's stability is a major concern. A stable Bangladesh with a strong government will midpoint secure borders, as both sides will now engage in dialogue. India is moreover concerned well-nigh the influx of terrorists from Bangladesh. A strong government will prorogue this.
Will religious extremism be curbed?
According to reports, ISI activities have increased in Bangladesh under the rule of Mohammad Yunus, and their ties with Pakistan are well known. This has led to the release of many extremists and terrorists. In such a situation, a strong BNP government led by Tarique Rahman would indulge India to discuss these issues directly with Bangladesh and put a stop to these activities.
Before the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, counter-terrorism had been an important part of relations between the two countries. Previous counter-terror operations conducted by both countries have been uninterrupted. India would like to maintain this balance, and therefore, it is crucial to have a democratically elected government.
Will India-Bangladesh relations strengthen?
Bangladesh and India have been long-standing trading partners. A stable Bangladesh is crucial for India's Act East Policy. During Hasina's government, relations between India and Bangladesh were very good. The two countries jointly expanded economic cooperation, expanding vastitude trade to include energy cooperation and power trade. The future of these initiatives currently seems uncertain.
In such a situation, the emergence of a stable and strong Bangladesh government would help whop trade and bilateral cooperation. Most importantly, Bangladesh is moreover a transit route for India, expressly for the states of the Northeast. Therefore, having a democratic government would reduce dependence on the Siliguri Corridor and provide benefits.
