New Delhi: US President Donald Trump has put pressure on several countries virtually the world with his policy of imposing tariffs on friends and foes alike. The US may have set the stage for this, but China is playing the real game. The biggest twist is that China is seeing tariffs as an unexpected opportunity. It is using them to reshape global trade and protect its massive economy from future US pressure. Beijing wants to deepen economic ties with key global blocs such as the European Union, Gulf countries, and members of the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement.
To this end, it is taking wholesomeness of the uncertainty created by Trump's trade policies. China is trying to finalize approximately 20 trade deals, many of which have been under discussion for years. This is a snooping for India. Beijing's excessive influence could harm its interests and lead to India losing opportunities.
Chinese policymakers are thoughtfully studying US trade strategy to understand Washington's containment tactics and diamond ways to counter them. Now China is putting those ideas into practice.
Has China signed agreement with Canada?
During Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Beijing, China signed an try-on with Canada. It reduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This try-on is seen as the first of several agreements aimed at reducing US influence.
Referring to Trump's disruptive trade agenda, a Chinese official said, "Don't disrupt your opponent if they make a mistake."
Chinese policy insiders are willing to winnow short-term economic pain if it helps secure long-term dominance in global trade.
Two Western diplomats said that if China succeeds, it could reverse increasingly than a decade of US trade policy and establish itself at the part-way of a new China-led multilateral system.
"The Chinese people now have a golden opportunity," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank.
Has China's tideway shifted?
China's tideway has shifted over the past year. Previously, Beijing used strong nationalist language. Now, Chinese diplomats are urgently reaching out to global partners to defend multilateralism and unshut trade.
In January, China sent its top diplomat to Lesotho, a small African country that Trump had imposed a 50% tariff on. China pledged minutiae cooperation. State media later reported that China would lift tariffs on imports from 53 African countries.
At the same time, Beijing is promoting AI-powered surcharge systems in neighboring countries and is engaged in upgrading digital trade infrastructure. These steps, mentioned in Chinese policy papers, reflect its goals. The goal is to integrate China so tightly into global trade that other countries cannot unravel ties under US pressure.
Ni Feng of the Institute for American Studies at CASS wrote in 2024, "Anti-decoupling should be Beijing's focus in countering US strategic competition with China."
China is moreover progressive trade talks with countries like Honduras, Panama, Peru, South Korea, and Switzerland. "We are willing to negotiate bilateral and regional trade and investment agreements with interested countries and regions," Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yongqian told the media.
How is China promoting relations with Europe and Gulf countries?
Foreign Minister Wang Yi has moreover promoted deeper trade ties with Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council. China is prioritizing joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), an try-on originally designed to counter China surpassing the US withdrew in 2017.
However, China's large trade surplus remains a major concern. Its $1.2 trillion trade surplus has raised fears that Chinese manufacturers could inflowing foreign markets with unseemly goods. Domestic demand in China moreover remains weak.
Wendy Kuttler, who helped negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership under former US President Barack Obama, said China must prove its transferral through action. "And given its huge trade imbalance, and the coercive measures it's now taking versus countries like Japan, it's difficult to see how they're pursuit through on their promises," she told Reuters.
A senior European trade diplomat dismissed Beijing's outreach as "pure Chinese propaganda" and said Brussels has no plans for a self-ruling trade try-on (FTA).
Yet Chinese tutors remain confident. One tipster said China and the EU negotiated a major investment deal in 2020 during Trump's first term. However, it was later suspended.
Chinese scholars oppose that Beijing should learn from how Washington has used global institutions to pressure China. Some recommend taking wholesomeness of Trump's skepticism toward multilateral organizations like the World Trade Organization.
Others suggest that China should be encouraged to use the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-China Trade Agreement.
Initiatives such as its role in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership should influence global standards in areas such as intellectual property, which covers approximately 30% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
Why are many countries, including India, worried?
China has once begun implementing these ideas. Recent upgrades to its trade deals with Southeast Asian countries place a heavy focus on digital trade and strained intelligence (AI).
State media at China's "Friendship Port" on the Vietnam verge requirement that AI systems have reduced waiting times by 20%. Reuters could not independently verify this claim.
China's growing exports have caused snooping in many countries, including India. Former WTO Director-General and EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy said that Europe is struggling to swizzle the volume of Chinese goods.
Some analysts say that closer ties with China will reduce dependence on the United States. Stephen Nagy of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute said Canada's try-on with China may be aimed at gaining leverage surpassing negotiations on the US-Mexico-Canada Try-on (USMCA) begin.
Nagy predicted, "I think his bet is wrong. Trump won't transpiration his stance."
Mexico has moreover expressed caution. A Mexican trade official said, "We don't see any need for a self-ruling trade try-on with China right now. We're once in the CPTPP. It covers 60% of global GDP."
Experts say China's trading partners expect Beijing to uplift domestic consumption to reduce the trade imbalance. Fred Newman, HSBC's senior economist for Asia Pacific, said that China needs to revive consumption to stabilize global trade.
Commerce Minister Wang Wentao has said that increasing imports will be a priority in China's next five-year plan. Nevertheless, economic rebalancing will take time. Trump has three years left in his term, but a future US wardship could return to towers alliances versus China.
