Ukraine’s victory in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war—now in its third and a half year—could turn out to be a loss for China. Several experts have shared their views on this. In international diplomacy, China is known for its subtlety. It’s rare to see Beijing make provocative statements. However, during a recent China-EU meeting, European officials were stunned by the strong remarks of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi when he reportedly told his counterparts that China would not accept Russia’s defeat in the Ukraine war.
Insiders present at the meeting were surprised by Wang Yi’s tough message, especially just three weeks before a major summit in China. European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are scheduled to visit Beijing at the end of this month for a trade summit.
China Cannot Let Russia Lose
This was China’s most direct statement so far in support of Russia’s war in Ukraine. A report by the South China Morning Post, citing sources familiar with the discussion, stated that on July 3, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas that China cannot allow Russia to lose in Ukraine, fearing that afterwards, the U.S. would shift its full focus to Beijing.
Ukraine and the EU have consistently said that Russia cannot continue its war in Ukraine without China’s help. In response, China’s Foreign Ministry has repeatedly claimed that "China is not in favor of war and remains neutral in the three-year-old conflict."
However, Wang Yi’s latest statement—considered generally soft-spoken—suggests that China is no longer concerned with pretending to be neutral in this war. This dramatic shift in Beijing’s behavior has put EU officials in a tough spot.
Ukraine War: A Strategic Necessity for China
Wang Yi’s alleged comments indicate that Russia’s war in Ukraine could serve China’s strategic needs, as it diverts America’s attention from Beijing’s growing preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan. Despite claims of staying on the sidelines, China has become a crucial economic lifeline for Russia, especially after Western sanctions cut Moscow off from global markets. This support has helped Russia maintain its economy and its “war machine.”
In 2023, bilateral trade between China and Russia hit a record $240 billion, a 64% increase from 2021—before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. China was already Russia’s top trading partner, but there has been a massive surge in certain sectors. For example, exports of Chinese cars and automobile parts to Russia reached $23 billion in 2023, up from $6 billion in 2022.
Russia Imports Tools from China
Last year, former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that about 70% of machine tools and 90% of microelectronics imported by Russia come from China. These microelectronics are critical for the construction of missiles, tanks, and fighter jets.
According to an analysis of Chinese customs data by the Carnegie Endowment think tank, Beijing exports over $300 million worth of dual-use items to Russia each month—products that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. This includes semiconductors, telecom equipment, and machine tools. According to the Brookings Institution, Chinese companies are also supplying Russia with nitrocellulose, a key propellant in weapons, as well as drone engines and various components related to satellite technology.
In addition, 90% of China-Russia trade takes place in their own currencies (yuan and ruble) instead of U.S. dollars, reducing Moscow’s dependence on Western financial systems. In April 2025, Ukraine even accused China of supplying Russia with weapons and ammunition—though no direct evidence was provided.
What’s surprising is that China shares a 4,209 km-long border with Russia, parts of which are disputed. Historically, China had a hostile relationship with the Soviet Union, and unresolved territorial issues still persist in Russia’s Far East. Despite all these complications, why is China supporting Russia so fully? And more importantly, after pretending to be neutral for three years, why is China now openly supporting a decisive Russian victory?
The Ukraine War Is in China’s Interest
Russia’s war in Ukraine is serving several of America’s strategic interests. In fact, it could be argued that the U.S. has achieved more strategic wins over Russia in the past three years than in the three decades since the end of the Cold War. Countries like Sweden and Finland, which had historically maintained neutrality toward Russia, are now NATO members. Europe is more united than ever before.
Europe Is Taking Defense Seriously
After decades of inaction, Europe is finally taking its defense seriously, and for the first time since World War II, many European nations are spending more than 2% of their GDP on defense. The U.S. can test and upgrade its weapons in a real conflict against Russia, and the Pentagon is able to weaken the Kremlin, its weapons stockpiles, and its military—without putting any American boots on the ground.
Despite all this, former U.S. President Donald Trump is working overtime to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. Trump is committed to ending the war from day one of assuming office. In contrast, China, which claims to be Russia’s friend, wants the war to continue.
“Hide Your Strength, Bide Your Time”
In the late 1970s, during the post-Mao reform era, Deng Xiaoping adopted the strategy of “hide your strength, bide your time.” This meant avoiding confrontation or costly wars with Western powers until China had fully developed its internal strength and military capabilities. China followed this policy strictly until around 2000 and then began gradually asserting itself. These days in China, there’s a joke that “Win-Win” means China wins twice. The Ukraine war is that Win-Win situation for Beijing. On one hand, Russia is weakening and falling further into China’s sphere of influence. On the other hand, the U.S. is preoccupied in Europe.
As time goes on, China’s involvement in the Ukraine war is becoming more direct. It seems that no matter how hard Trump tries, the road to peace in Kyiv may now run through Beijing.
